A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates an increase in the proportion of non-diabetic individuals being prescribed GLP-1 drugs, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend has raised concerns about possible shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs function by mimicking a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA greenlighted the GLP-1 treatment Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. Following this approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing enough GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the soaring demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited medical facilities between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are acknowledging the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the importance of ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, although it may not fully represent the national landscape. Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The explosive growth in sales of these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this high demand has also led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030. They also anticipate that the adoption of these drugs will extend to approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., amounting to about 9% of the population, by 2035.