A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates an increasing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers express concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, initially approved for type 2 diabetes management, function by mimicking a hormone that controls blood sugar and curtails appetite. In 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. This development has led to heightened demand, which has challenged companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly in their production capacities.
The analysis, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, reviewed the medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. The findings reveal that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Concurrently, the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, pointed out that this data signals a significant public health shift, as more healthcare providers recognize the therapeutic benefits of these medications for obesity management. However, it also raised alarms regarding the accessibility of GLP-1 treatments for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software firm, which might not reflect national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their ability to suppress appetite and contribute to considerable weight loss, with users averaging up to a 26% reduction in body weight.
The soaring demand for these drugs has significantly boosted the market value of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, positioning them as leading pharmaceutical firms globally. Nevertheless, this demand has created challenges in fulfilling prescriptions for some patients. Both companies have committed substantial investments to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with anticipation that about 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—will adopt these treatments by 2035.