A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine highlights a troubling trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs. While the number of prescriptions for individuals with diabetes is declining, the share of people without diabetes receiving these medications is increasing.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA’s 2021 approval of Wegovy for weight loss broadened their use. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, the primary manufacturers, are currently facing challenges in meeting the growing demand for these drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. Their findings reveal that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes fell from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023. Concurrently, the share of new users without diabetes surged from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted this indicates an increasing recognition of the medications’ benefits for obesity treatment, yet also raises concerns about potential shortages and the necessity for continued access for diabetes patients.
The analysis utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. In recent years, the popularity of GLP-1 drugs has soared due to their weight-loss effects, with users reportedly shedding up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these drugs has catapulted Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry, yet high demand has made it difficult for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to increase their production capabilities.
According to Morgan Stanley analysts, the global market for GLP-1 drugs is projected to reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million users in the U.S. by 2035, accounting for nearly 9% of the population.