A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and reduce appetite, were initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss as well.
Since the approval of Wegovy, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep up with the heightened demand for GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who made at least one doctor’s visit from 2011 to 2023. Their analysis indicated that the proportion of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the advantages of these medications in treating obesity, marking a significant change in public health,” said Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, this also prompts concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to maintain access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent national trends.
With growing popularity, GLP-1 drugs are now known for their appetite-suppressing effects, helping users lose up to 26% of their body weight. The skyrocketing sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has made it increasingly difficult for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million users in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—by 2035.