A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine highlights a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 medications to individuals without diabetes, coinciding with a decline in new prescriptions for those with diabetes. The researchers caution that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these critical treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the approval of GLP-1 medication Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing enough of these drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the soaring demand.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Concurrently, the group of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant shift in public health,” said Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it raises concerns about potential drug shortages and the necessity to ensure continued access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software firm, which may not fully represent national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity for their weight-loss side effects, with users losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, though their success has led to challenges for some patients trying to fill prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to expand production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030 and expect that approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S., which is about 9% of the population, will adopt these drugs by 2035.