A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are on the decline. Researchers express concern about potential shortages of these medications as a result.
GLP-1 drugs, originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes, function by mimicking a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curtail appetite. The FDA expanded their usage in 2021 to include weight loss, specifically approving the drug Wegovy.
Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the surging demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. They discovered a shift, with the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes dropping from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. In contrast, the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, the co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift.” However, she highlighted concerns about ensuring that diabetes patients continue to have access to these vital treatments amid the growing adoption for obesity management.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight. This increased demand has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the surge in prescriptions has caused difficulties for many patients in obtaining their medications. In response, both companies have invested billions to boost their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley projects that the global market for GLP-1 drugs may reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that by 2035, around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—roughly 9% of the population—will be using these medications.