A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine highlights a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study express concerns about potential shortages of these medications as demand surges.
GLP-1 drugs, initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, work by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and reduces appetite. In 2021, the FDA authorized the GLP-1 drug Wegovy for weight loss, contributing to their increasing popularity. Currently, companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of these medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings reveal a decline in the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented on the findings, stating that this data indicates healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift. However, he cautioned about the potential for medication shortages and the necessity to ensure diabetes patients still have access to these treatments.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national population. The appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs have contributed to their recent popularity, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have experienced skyrocketing sales, becoming two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested significantly to increase production.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that about 31.5 million people in the U.S., nearly 9% of the population, will adopt these drugs by 2035.