A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the percentage of individuals without diabetes who are being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are decreasing. The researchers caution that this trend could lead to shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were first approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA authorized the GLP-1 treatment Wegovy for weight loss. Since then, companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing enough GLP-1 drugs—such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. Their analysis revealed that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the percentage of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
While the study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, the findings may not be representative of the entire nation. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the status of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but the increased demand has made it difficult for some patients to get their prescriptions filled. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.