A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, even as new prescriptions for those with diabetes have declined. The authors of the study caution that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these important medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which simulate a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and decreases appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA extended approval to include the GLP-1 medication Wegovy for weight loss purposes.
Currently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in keeping up with the increasing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from approximately 45 million Americans who visited a physician between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, indicating a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure continued access for patients with diabetes.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, demonstrating the ability to help users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, high demand has led to challenges for some patients seeking to fill prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030. They also project that by 2035, around 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, will be using these medications.