A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study express concern that this shift may lead to potential shortages of these essential medications.
GLP-1 drugs work by mimicking a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and suppress appetite. Initially developed for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of these medications in 2021 to include weight loss, particularly with the approval of Wegovy.
As demand surges, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the segment of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that diabetes patients maintain access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their ability to suppress appetite and aid users in losing up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these treatments have established Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested significantly to enhance production capabilities.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expectation that around 31.5 million people in the U.S., equating to approximately 9% of the population, will utilize these medications by 2035.