A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for patients with diabetes are declining. Researchers have expressed concerns this trend may lead to potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which were originally developed to manage type 2 diabetes by mimicking a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite, saw expanded approval in 2021 when the FDA allowed the use of Wegovy for weight loss purposes. Consequently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the growing demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study, conducted by researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. The findings reveal that the percentage of new users of GLP-1 drugs with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, highlighted the public health shift, stating that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of GLP-1 medications for obesity treatment. However, he warned about the potential consequences on access to these medications for diabetes patients.
The data for the study was obtained from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the national population accurately. GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their side effects that suppress appetite, with studies showing that users can lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of GLP-1 drugs have positioned both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical firms. Nevertheless, the increased demand has created difficulties for some patients in filling their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested heavily to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these medications will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, expected to adopt these treatments by 2035.