A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes who are prescribed GLP-1 medications is rising, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers express concern that this shift might lead to potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, designed to mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar and reduces appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA authorized Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss as well.
Currently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 medications—including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to satisfy increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider from 2011 to 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the percentage of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that patients with diabetes continue to have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which might not represent the entire population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects and ability to help users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has made it challenging for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated user base of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—by 2035.