A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the percentage of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for patients with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns over potential shortages of these drugs.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and curbs appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded the approval to include Wegovy for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. They noted that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author of the study, Yee Hui Yeo, commented that this shift indicates an increased recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, it also highlights the necessity to ensure that diabetes patients maintain access to these crucial treatments.
The study relied on data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users experiencing weight loss of up to 26%.
The soaring demand for these drugs has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry, making them some of the most valuable companies in the sector. However, this high demand has made it difficult for some patients to obtain their medications. Both companies are investing billions to increase production capacity.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—set to adopt these treatments by 2035.