A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increasing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, even as new prescriptions for diabetes patients decline. Researchers are expressing concern over the potential shortages of these treatments due to this shift.
GLP-1 medications mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and appetite, initially gaining approval for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, following the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, demand for these drugs surged. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the rising demand.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans with at least one doctor visit from 2011 to 2023. The findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Concurrently, the share of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend suggests healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, signaling a significant public health shift. However, he emphasized the need to ensure continued access for diabetes patients amidst growing concerns about medication shortages.
The data for the study was sourced from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent a national cross-section. GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with some users experiencing body weight reductions of up to 26%.
The rapid increase in sales of GLP-1 medications has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Nevertheless, high demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to expand production capabilities.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that around 31.5 million people in the U.S. will adopt these treatments by 2035, representing roughly 9% of the population.