A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rise in the number of people without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are on the decline. Researchers caution that this shift raises concerns about possible shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar and curbs appetite, were initially authorized for diabetes management. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded their approval to include the weight loss treatment Wegovy. Consequently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 medications—such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to satisfy the soaring demand.
The research from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. It found that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Concurrently, the percentage of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the advantages of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health change.” However, she emphasized the importance of maintaining accessibility for diabetic patients to these medications amidst rising demand.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, but noted that it may not be fully representative of national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their weight-loss benefits, with users reportedly shedding as much as 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into the ranks of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. Nonetheless, the high demand has made it challenging for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. To address this issue, both companies have invested heavily in increasing their production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, and they expect approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—to adopt these drugs by 2035.