The number of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs is on the rise, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining, according to a recent study released in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
Researchers express concerns that this trend may lead to potential shortages of these treatments. GLP-1 medications, which imitate a hormone that controls blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA expanded their approval to include Wegovy for weight loss.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, the main producers of GLP-1 drugs, are facing challenges in keeping up with the increasing demand for medications like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
A team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Their analysis revealed a decrease in the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-author of the study, stated that this data indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a notable public health transformation. However, he cautioned that this shift could lead to medication shortages, which may affect access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be fully representative on a national scale.
Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, helping users achieve weight loss of up to 26%.
The soaring sales of these medications have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the status of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, high demand has created difficulties in fulfilling prescriptions for some patients. Both companies have committed substantial resources to increase their production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could hit $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated adoption rate of around 31.5 million individuals in the U.S., equivalent to roughly 9% of the population, by 2035.