A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes who are prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This emerging trend raises concerns about possible shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, received FDA approval for weight loss in 2021.
As a result, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the rising demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the percentage of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, the study’s co-first author, remarked, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not reflect national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, contributing to weight loss of up to 26%.
The surge in sales of these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become the leading pharmaceutical companies globally. Nevertheless, high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested significantly to increase production to meet this demand.
Morgan Stanley analysts forecast that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with the U.S. adoption expected to rise to approximately 31.5 million people, around 9% of the population, by 2035.