A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increase in the number of people without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while prescriptions for individuals with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns among researchers about potential shortages of these drugs.
GLP-1 medications mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 drug, for weight loss in 2021. Following this approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. The study found that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Concurrently, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that the data indicates healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant shift in public health. However, he cautioned that this could lead to medication shortages and emphasized the importance of ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the entire national population. Recent years have seen a surge in the popularity of GLP-1 drugs due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has made it challenging for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested billions to increase production.
According to Morgan Stanley analysts, the global market for GLP-1 drugs is expected to reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S—approximately 9% of the population—using these drugs by 2035.