A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable increase in the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline. Researchers highlight this trend as a potential precursor to shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone responsible for regulating blood sugar and reducing appetite, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes management. However, following the FDA’s 2021 approval of Wegovy for weight loss, the demand for these medications surged.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are reportedly facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy growing demand.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. The findings indicate that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo commented on the findings, noting, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment.” However, she also cautioned about the implications for medication availability, emphasizing the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients can still access these drugs.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software entity, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. This surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally, although the increased demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients. In response, both companies have invested heavily to expand their production capacities.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S. expected to adopt these drugs by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.