The proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes have declined, as indicated by a recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
The authors of the study caution that this trend may lead to potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications function by imitating a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved Wegovy in 2021 for weight management.
Following this approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient supplies of GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the escalating demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, among other institutions, examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. Their findings showed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. In contrast, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant shift in public health,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, this trend also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure continued access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not reflect national demographics accurately.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their weight loss benefits, with users experiencing weight reductions of up to 26%.
The surge in sales of these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have committed billions to enhance their production capabilities for these drugs.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 medications may reach $105 billion by 2030. They also estimate that by 2035, approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—will adopt these drug treatments.