The proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining, according to a new study published Tuesday in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
The study’s authors express concern that this trend could lead to shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and reduces appetite. Initially approved to treat type 2 diabetes, the Food and Drug Administration also approved the GLP-1 treatment Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. Since then, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to meet the rising demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor from 2011 to 2023. They discovered that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and ensuring that patients with diabetes have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be nationally representative.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing side effects, aiding users in losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these drugs have made Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in filling their prescriptions. Both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have invested billions to scale up production of these medications.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict the global market for these drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030. They also expect that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, will use these drugs by 2035.