A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these effective treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 by approving Wegovy for weight loss.
Currently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing sufficient GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the rising demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers from 2011 to 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, representing a significant public health shift. However, it raises concerns about the potential for medication shortages and the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients continue to have access.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully reflect national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite suppression effects, allowing users to shed as much as 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become leading pharmaceutical companies globally. Nonetheless, the heightened demand has made it difficult for some patients to get their prescriptions filled. To address this challenge, both companies have invested significant resources to boost production.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for these drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated adoption among about 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, representing roughly 9% of the population.