A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable trend: the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, whereas new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining.
The authors of the study express concern that this shift may lead to potential shortages of these crucial treatments. GLP-1 medications function by imitating a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA granted approval for the use of the GLP-1 drug Wegovy for weight loss in 2021.
Following this, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, key players in the GLP-1 market, have faced challenges in producing enough of these drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to keep pace with rising demand.
The research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% during the period from 2019 to 2023. Concurrently, the number of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, this trend also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure patients with diabetes continue to have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, though it may not reflect a nationally representative sample.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have surged in popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, helping users achieve weight loss of up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have catapulted Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the ranks of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the high demand has made it challenging for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to enhance the production of these drugs.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—will adopt these medications by 2035.