A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant increase in prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend has raised concerns among researchers about potential shortages of these important medications.
GLP-1 drugs, initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, function by mimicking a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and suppress appetite. The FDA expanded their use in 2021 with the approval of Wegovy for weight loss purposes. As a result, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the growing demand for this class of medications, which includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. The data indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70%, while the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25% during the same period.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift. However, it raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes continue to have access to these treatments.”
The study relied on data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national population. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this high demand has made it difficult for some patients to obtain their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S. adopting these treatments by 2035, representing approximately 9% of the population.