A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of people without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is on the rise, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers express concern that this shift may lead to potential shortages of these vital medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which initially gained approval for treating type 2 diabetes, mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curb appetite. In 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. Since that approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in keeping up with the increasing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include popular brands like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit from 2011 to 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes has dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes has surged from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, stated that the data suggests a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits these medications can offer for obesity treatment. However, she also voiced concerns about potential shortages and the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients retain access to these medications.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect the entire national population. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these drugs have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Despite this success, the high demand has made it challenging for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily in ramping up production to meet the growing needs.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could hit $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., accounting for about 9% of the population, by 2035.