The proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is on the rise, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining, according to a recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
This trend has generated concerns about potential shortages of these treatments, as noted by the study’s authors. GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic hormones that regulate blood sugar levels and curb appetite, and were initially sanctioned for treating type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss.
Since that approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in keeping up with the increasing demand for GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor’s visit from 2011 to 2023. Their findings revealed that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023. Concurrently, the percentage of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, commented that this data indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers regarding the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, which constitutes a significant public health shift. However, she cautioned that this trend could lead to medication shortages, highlighting the necessity for continued access for diabetic patients.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, though this data may not be representative on a national scale. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their ability to suppress appetite, helping users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these drugs have made Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has resulted in challenges for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested billions into enhancing their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected 31.5 million users in the U.S.—accounting for about 9% of the population—by 2035.