The number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is on the rise, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining, according to a recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
The study highlights a potential risk of shortages for these drugs, as Medicare patients stand to save approximately $1.5 billion on ten specific prescription medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and decreases appetite, were originally developed for treating type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA expanded their approval to include weight loss treatments with drugs like Wegovy.
Companies such as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 medications—including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to satisfy growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. Findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the advantages of these medications for obesity treatment, indicating a notable public health trend,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “Nonetheless, it raises alarms about the potential for drug shortages and the necessity to ensure access for diabetic patients.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent national statistics. GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their ability to suppress appetite, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these drugs have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the increasing demand has made it challenging for some patients to fill their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest heavily in boosting their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million Americans—around 9% of the population—expected to adopt these treatments by 2035.