A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the percentage of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is on the rise, even as new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining.
The authors of the study highlight concerns that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments. GLP-1 drugs function by mimicking a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of the GLP-1 medication Wegovy for weight loss in 2021.
Following this approval, pharmaceutical companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing enough GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, along with other institutions, reviewed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings showed that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new GLP-1 users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be fully representative of the national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, helping users lose up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these drugs have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the ranks of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies, although the heightened demand has complicated the process for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have poured billions into enhancing production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million users in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—by 2035.