A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the percentage of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is on the rise, while the number of new prescriptions for diabetic patients is declining. The authors of the study caution that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA authorized Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. This has resulted in increased demand, leading both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to struggle to produce sufficient quantities of GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their analysis revealed that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the percentage of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, commented that the findings suggest healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, representing a major shift in public health considerations. However, she also highlighted concerns regarding potential medication shortages and the need to prioritize access for diabetic patients.
The research utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully reflect national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressant properties, facilitating weight loss of up to 26%.
The soaring demand for these drugs has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become leading pharmaceutical companies on a global scale. Nevertheless, the heightened demand has made it challenging for certain patients to fill their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions to enhance production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion worldwide by 2030, with expectations that around 31.5 million people in the U.S., roughly 9% of the population, will adopt these treatments by 2035.