A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers express concern that this shift could lead to shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and suppress appetite. Originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of GLP-1 treatment Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. Since this approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the growing demand.
The research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, one of the study’s co-authors, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant public health shift. However, it raises alarms about potential medication shortages and the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients have continued access to these drugs.”
It is important to note that the study relied on data from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing properties and potential for users to lose up to 26% of their body weight. This surge in demand has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, yet the high demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients. Both companies have invested substantially to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs may reach $105 billion by 2030 and that adoption in the U.S. could expand to approximately 31.5 million individuals, roughly 9% of the population, by 2035.