A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine highlights a concerning trend: the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining.
The researchers caution that this shift may lead to potential shortages of these essential treatments. GLP-1 medications were designed to mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved Wegovy for weight loss in 2021.
Since that time, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited their doctors between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users who have type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes grew from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications in addressing obesity, marking a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and underscores the importance of ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.”
The study relied on data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which might not reflect the broader national population.
Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with some users reporting weight loss of up to 26%. The surge in sales of these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, although the high demand has complicated the process for certain patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030. They also predict that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—around 9% of the population—will be utilizing these medications by 2035.