A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the percentage of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is on the rise, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are decreasing. This trend has raised concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, in 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment for weight loss. Since that approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep up with the growing demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who made at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the percentage of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, stated that this data implies healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity. However, it also raises concerns about ensuring that patients with diabetes continue to have access to these essential treatments.
The study analyzed data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although it may not be representative of the entire nation. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects and have been shown to help users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The dramatic rise in sales of GLP-1 drugs has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this high demand has made it challenging for some patients to fill prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in boosting their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030 and estimate that by 2035, around 31.5 million people, or approximately 9% of the U.S. population, will be using these medications.