A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable trend: the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is on the rise, while the number of new prescriptions for people with diabetes is declining. This shift raises concerns about the potential for shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which help regulate blood sugar levels and reduce appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, since the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, there has been a significant increase in demand for these medications. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges to produce sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, which include popular medications like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, alongside other institutions, analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. They found a decline in the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% to above 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without diabetes climbed from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend indicates healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, a significant public health concern. Nonetheless, Yeo cautioned that this trend also poses risks of medication shortages, stressing the importance of ensuring that diabetic patients retain access to these essential treatments.
The data utilized for the study came from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not offer a nationally representative sample. Nonetheless, the popularity of GLP-1 drugs due to their appetite-suppressing effects has resulted in significant weight loss for users—up to 26% of body weight.
The skyrocketing sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry, making them two of the most valuable companies in the sector. However, the high demand has also created access issues for some patients. Both companies have invested billions to bolster production capabilities in response to this unprecedented demand.
Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could hit $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S.—or about 9% of the population—adopting these treatments by 2035. This optimistic projection highlights the potential impact of GLP-1 medications in addressing obesity and related health issues, alongside their original purpose of managing diabetes.
This evolving landscape presents a dual opportunity for enhanced public health interventions while underscoring the need for careful management of medication distribution to ensure access for all patients who rely on these treatments.