A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetics are declining. Researchers expressed concerns that this trend could lead to shortages of these vital treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA authorized Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, specifically for weight loss. As demand has surged, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to keep up with the production of GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated a drop in the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Concurrently, the percentage of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, remarked that the data suggests a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. Nonetheless, this shift raises concerns regarding medication availability and the necessity for diabetes patients to maintain access to these therapies.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their effects on appetite suppression, helping users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The skyrocketing sales of these drugs have propelled both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into the ranks of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the escalating demand has made it increasingly difficult for some patients to get their prescriptions filled. To address this issue, both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected user adoption of about 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, roughly 9% of the population.