A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises alarms about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which replicate a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and diminishes appetite, were first authorized for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. Since then, companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep pace with the growing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Research conducted by Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other organizations analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers from 2011 to 2023. The study found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes climbed from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, the study’s co-first author, highlighted that more healthcare professionals are recognizing the advantages of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant change in public health. However, this shift raises concerns about ensuring that diabetes patients continue to receive these crucial treatments.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not accurately represent national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with some users reporting weight loss of up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring demand for these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. However, this demand has also led to challenges for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that the adoption of GLP-1 medications could extend to approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, by 2035.