A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a concerning trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs: the share of individuals without diabetes receiving these medications is on the rise, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining.
The study highlights potential shortages of these drugs, which mimic a hormone responsible for blood sugar regulation and appetite control. Originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment, the FDA expanded approval in 2021 to include weight loss with the GLP-1 treatment Wegovy.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have reported challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs—which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to satisfy increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that from 2019 to 2023, the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70%. Conversely, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes climbed from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant shift in public health,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, this also raises concerns about potential drug shortages and the necessity for patients with diabetes to maintain access to these treatments.”
The study’s findings are derived from data collected by the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, helping users lose up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, high demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients, prompting both companies to invest billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million individuals in the U.S., or around 9% of the population, expected to adopt these treatments by 2035.