A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant increase in the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are on the decline.
This trend raises alarms for potential shortages of these treatments, as GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and decreases appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of GLP-1 treatment Wegovy for weight management in 2021.
As demand for these medications surges, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly face challenges in keeping up with production for their GLP-1 drug portfolio, which includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and various institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit from 2011 to 2023. Their analysis indicated that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Meanwhile, the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications in treating obesity, indicative of a major public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, this also raises concerns regarding potential medication shortages and the need to ensure diabetes patients maintain access to these critical treatments.”
While the study utilized data from the software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national landscape, it highlights the growing popularity of GLP-1 drugs for their appetite-suppressing effects and significant weight loss potential—up to 26% of body weight for users.
The booming sales of these drugs have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the rank of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this heightened demand has complicated access for some patients. Both companies have committed billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these medications could hit $105 billion by 2030. They further predict that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—may adopt these drugs by 2035.