A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is on the rise, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, specifically for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet increased demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors from 2011 to 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which represents a significant public health shift,” said Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that patients with diabetes continue to have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be fully representative on a national scale.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, and studies show that users can lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have catapulted Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has made it difficult for certain patients to have their prescriptions filled. Both companies have invested extensively to increase their production capacity for these drugs.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030. They also predict that about 31.5 million people in the U.S., or approximately 9% of the population, will adopt these medications by 2035.