A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the percentage of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetics are on the decline. This trend raises alarms about potential shortages of these essential medications.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone responsible for regulating blood sugar and curbing appetite. Initially authorized for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, these drugs gained wider attention when the FDA approved Wegovy for weight loss in 2021.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, leading manufacturers in this category, are facing challenges in meeting the surging demand for medications such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Findings from the study indicate that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new GLP-1 users without the condition rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author of the study, Yee Hui Yeo, noted that this trend reflects a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the medications’ effectiveness in treating obesity, signaling a significant public health shift. However, Yeo cautioned about potential shortages and the necessity of ensuring that diabetes patients maintain access to these treatments.
The study relied on data from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these drugs has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Nevertheless, high demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts forecast that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030. The investment bank also anticipates that by 2035, around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—roughly 9% of the population—will use these medications.