A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the percentage of people without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while the number of new prescriptions for individuals with diabetes is declining. This trend raises concerns about possible shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and reduce appetite, were initially approved for managing type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 to include Wegovy for weight loss. Since then, companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep up with the rising demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes fell from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%. “This trend indicates a significant public health shift as more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for treating obesity,” said Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study. However, she cautioned that it could lead to medication shortages, affecting access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be fully representative of the national population. In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring demand for these drugs has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry. However, this increased demand has also resulted in challenges for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030 and expect about 31.5 million people in the U.S., approximately 9% of the population, to adopt these medications by 2035.