A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a rising number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline. This trend has sparked concerns regarding potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications work by mimicking a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of the GLP-1 drug Wegovy for weight loss in 2021.
Since this approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. The analysis revealed a decline in the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes, dropping from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, remarked, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant shift in public health. However, it also raises concerns about possible medication shortages and the necessity to guarantee access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, although it may not reflect a nationally representative sample.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reported to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has made it challenging for certain patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to increase their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that around 31.5 million people in the U.S. will adopt these medications by 2035, equating to about 9% of the population.