A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a growing trend among individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications are designed to imitate a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 by approving Wegovy for weight management.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing an adequate supply of GLP-1 drugs, a category that includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy increasing market demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, among other institutions, examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers from 2011 to 2023. Their findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, commented that this trend indicates healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift. However, it also highlights concerns regarding medication availability for diabetes patients.
The study’s data came from TriNetX, a healthcare software firm, which may not reflect the entire national population. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite suppression effects, helping individuals lose as much as 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of GLP-1 drugs has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the soaring demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients. Both companies have invested heavily to increase production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could hit $105 billion by 2030, estimating that the adoption rate in the U.S. will reach around 31.5 million individuals, or about 9% of the population, by 2035.