A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant trend: the number of prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes is increasing, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers express concern that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these essential medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded their approval with Wegovy being introduced for weight loss purposes.
As demand for these medications surges, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in maintaining adequate production levels of this drug class, which includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The analysis, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited their doctors from 2011 to 2023. Findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author of the study, Yee Hui Yeo, stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, indicating a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the importance of ensuring access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their ability to suppress appetite, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these drugs have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to be among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the increased demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients, prompting both companies to invest billions to boost production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will soar to $105 billion by 2030. They also estimate that by 2035, the adoption of these drugs in the U.S. could reach about 31.5 million people, or approximately 9% of the population.