A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of patients without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. This trend raises concerns regarding potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded their use, allowing the GLP-1 medication Wegovy to be prescribed for weight loss.
As a result, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy rising demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who had seen a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that the data indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, this shift also raises concerns about ensuring that diabetic patients continue to receive access to these essential treatments.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not provide a nationally representative sample.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, helping users lose as much as 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these drugs have made Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide. However, the high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to expand their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.