A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are decreasing. This trend could potentially lead to shortages of these treatments, the study authors caution.
GLP-1 drugs, originally approved for type 2 diabetes management, function by imitating a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite. In 2021, the FDA expanded the approval of GLP-1 medications with the introduction of Wegovy for weight loss purposes.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, leading manufacturers in this market, are currently facing challenges in meeting the heightened demand for GLP-1 treatments, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other organizations reviewed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes have continued access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national landscape.
GLP-1 medications have gained popularity in recent years due to their appetite-suppressing properties, with users experiencing weight loss of up to 26%. The surge in sales for these treatments has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the increased demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients, prompting both companies to invest billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030. They also predict that adoption rates could see around 31.5 million individuals in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—utilizing these medications by 2035.