Red Sox face pivotal test as they open a four-game set with the Orioles before a high-stakes showdown in the Bronx
For the Red Sox, winning series matters more than anything, and they came up short of a sweep against the Marlins before Baltimore rolled into town. The new wrinkle in the race is that Boston sits just a half-game ahead of the New York Yankees, making the upcoming four games in the Bronx a potential turning point in the Wild Card standings. But first the Orioles.
Boston will enter Baltimore as the underdog in perception if not in math, shifting from starting-pitching advantage against Miami to a tougher matchup against the Birds. The Red Sox will trot the back end of a Dodgers-influenced rotation as they try to blunt Baltimore’s offense.
Trevor Rogers has become a focal point for the Orioles. He woke up on May 24 against Boston, shutting them out for six innings on two hits, and he hasn’t looked back. In his latest stretch, he’s faced a few of the league’s better offenses—Phillies and Mariners among them—and generally shut them down. The upside for Rogers is reflected in a 2.45 FIP, underscoring how much his results have aligned with his peripheral numbers. Boston’s last meeting with Rogers came with Rafael Devers in the lineup and a different dynamic up and down the order.
Dustin May, fresh off a strong outing against the Houston Astros, will need more of the same if the Red Sox are to steal a win in Baltimore. He’ll be tasked with containing a Baltimore lineup that has picked up some speed and pop, especially from players who are part of the current core.
Tomoyuki Sugano brings his diversified mix to Fenway, offering a heavy mix of a sweeper, four-seamer, sinker, splitter, and cutter, with a dash of curveball sprinkled in. He’s not a power pitcher, but his control and variety have kept hitters off balance. Since a rough stretch that included a blowup against the Rangers in July, Sugano has logged 33 innings with a 3.27 ERA and a 3.84 FIP, though his strikeout rate remains on the lower side at around 15 percent.
On Boston’s side, the Orioles’ offense has shown signs of strain beyond Gunnar Henderson, who is the one hitter with an OPS north of .800. Several players who were contributions at the deadline—Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday, Ryan Mountcastle, and Colton Cowser—have not been up to their peak levels this year. If May and a supporting cast of Boston arms can keep the Orioles’ top of the order in check, Boston can stay competitive in this series and perhaps gain ground.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Monday, August 18: Trevor Rogers (1.43 ERA / 2.45 FIP) vs. Dustin May (4.67 ERA / 4.72 FIP)
Tuesday, August 19: Tomoyuki Sugano (4.13 ERA / 4.90 FIP) vs. Walker Buehler (5.43 ERA / 5.89 FIP)
When/Where to Watch
Monday August 18: 7:10 PM ET on NESN
Tuesday August 19: 7:10 PM ET on NESN
Summary and outlook
The four-game set against Baltimore is a litmus test for the Red Sox as they jockey with the Yankees in the crowded Wild Card picture. Boston’s success will hinge on getting timely offense from a lineup that has shown flashes and on breaking through against a Baltimore pitching staff that has leaned on its depth to navigate tough assignments. If the Red Sox can steal a couple of wins in Baltimore, they can keep the pressure on in the standings and set up what could be a defining weekend in the Bronx.
Side notes and potential angles to watch
– The health and performance of the Red Sox’s depth arms will be tested. If May can repeat his latest form and Sugano can keep hitters off balance, Boston’s chances improve even in a tougher road environment.
– Baltimore’s lineup balance will be tested by a Boston pitching plan that emphasizes tempo and breaking balls. Look for how often the Orioles mix in shifts and how they attack Boston’s left-right matchups.
– This series could redefine the momentum in the Wild Card race, with the next big hurdle coming in New York. A strong showing in Baltimore could set the stage for a strong response in the Bronx.