Stan Son provides insight on the upcoming matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cincinnati Reds, taking place in Cincinnati as part of a three-game series.
In this second game of the series, Ryan Pepiot will be on the mound for the Rays, while Andrew Abbott will take the start for the Reds.
Pepiot is known for his impressive fastball speed, averaging 95 mph, and boasts a swinging strike rate of 11.8% coupled with a strikeout rate of 24.2%. However, he has experienced challenges with control and home runs, allowing more than three earned runs in three instances this season, including two in his last five starts. Despite recurring issues with his home run rates and a relatively high FIP of 4.47 compared to his 3.59 ERA, he continues to log significant innings, having gone at least six innings in 15 games, and this will be his first encounter with Cincinnati this season.
On the opposing side, Abbott has been in remarkable form with a 2.13 ERA, although his FIP of 3.42 suggests he may have benefited from some luck thus far. His metrics indicate he effectively limits hard contact, showcasing a barrel rate of only 7.5%. While he has also allowed more than three earned runs three times, he has achieved the remarkable feat of allowing one or no earned runs in 13 games, and has produced a complete-game shutout earlier this year. Notably, this will be Abbott’s first matchup against the Rays.
Offensively, the Reds have been dealing with a high strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, ranking seventh highest in the league, while the Rays have struggled to find consistency against left-handed pitching, ranking 20th in weighted On-Base Average (wOBA).
With regard to the bullpens, Tampa Bay’s struggles place them at the 14th-lowest FIP, while Cincinnati’s bullpen ranks even lower at the 26th position.
Considering the ballpark’s reputation as a hitter-friendly venue, this matchup is expected to generate runs, leading to a recommended bet on the total runs surpassed post of 9, at -120 odds.
Overall, fans and analysts alike can expect an exciting game filled with offensive opportunities, as both teams look to capitalize on their pitching matchups and aim for victory.