Typhoon Ragasa has intensified significantly over the weekend in the western Pacific, escalating worries that communities in Southeast Asia could experience a super typhoon in the coming week. Known locally in the Philippines as “Nando,” Ragasa reached typhoon status on Saturday and was projected to strengthen to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane by early this week.
Satellite images revealed a well-defined eye had formed as Ragasa approached the Luzon Strait, situated between the Philippines and Taiwan. The most severe weather is expected to remain south of Taiwan while potentially affecting the northern Philippines. As the typhoon is forecasted to move westward into the South China Sea, concerns arise over the impact on land areas due to warm sea temperatures, ranging between 82-88 degrees Fahrenheit, which could fuel further intensification.
The term “super typhoon” is generally used to describe systems with sustained winds of at least 150 mph, similar to a strong Category 4 hurricane. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicts that Ragasa will make its final landfall towards the end of the week, directed somewhere west of Hong Kong. Its slow pace may result in significant rainfall across Vietnam and Laos.
In addition to Typhoon Ragasa, another storm, Neoguri, is predicted to develop into a powerful typhoon. Situated at a more northern latitude, Neoguri is likely to remain a concern primarily for marine activities. Its anticipated annular shape, where the cyclone’s eye and dense cloud cover resemble a doughnut, typically suggests resilience against environmental challenges such as dry air and unfavorable winds, potentially extending its longevity.
Ragasa and Neoguri are the 18th and 19th named storms in what has been a sluggish and delayed storm season in the Pacific. Although tropical cyclones can theoretically form year-round in this region, 2023 saw its first named storm only on June 11, marking the fifth-slowest start in recorded history. While additional tropical disturbances are predicted in the coming weeks, none are expected to pose as significant a threat as Ragasa.
As the situation evolves, stakeholders and residents in affected areas should remain vigilant and prepared for potential impacts. Due to the slow movement of Ragasa, the threat of extended rain-induced flooding looms, and efforts to mitigate damage should be prioritized.