Paris Saint-Germain head into Wednesday’s UEFA Super Cup in Udine as clear favourites against Tottenham Hotspur, with Opta’s supercomputer heavily backing the Champions League winners.
Why PSG are favourites
– Opta’s 10,000 pre-match simulations give PSG a 62.4% chance of winning inside 90 minutes, compared with 18.3% for Tottenham; 19.3% of sims ended level, implying extra time and the possibility of penalties.
– Historical precedent favours the European champions: 11 of the last 12 Super Cups have been won by the previous season’s Champions League winners (the lone exception was Atlético Madrid in 2018).
– PSG arrive on the back of a dominant Champions League campaign capped by a 5-0 final win over Inter Milan — the biggest winning margin in a UCL/European Cup final — and have been the most successful top-five-league side across 2025 in terms of victories (34).
– Ousmane Dembélé has been a standout attacking force this year, directly involved in 36 goals in 2025 (27 goals, 9 assists) and has been productive against English opponents in 2025.
Tottenham’s context and constraints
– Spurs earned their Super Cup place by winning the 2025 Europa League, beating Manchester United in the final. They are the eighth different English club to appear in the Super Cup; historically six of the previous seven English debutants won their first appearance (Arsenal were the exception in 1995).
– This match marks the start of a new era under Thomas Frank — his first competitive game as Tottenham manager and the first time an English manager’s debut match in charge of an English club has been the UEFA Super Cup. That freshness brings opportunity but also pressure.
– Squad availability is a real concern: James Maddison will miss the match after rupturing his ACL in pre-season; Radu Dragusin, Dejan Kulusevski, Manor Solomon, Bryan Gil and Kota Takai are also absent from the 22-man squad. Dominic Solanke and Destiny Udogie recovered enough to make the trip; new signings Mohammed Kudus and João Palhinha are expected to feature. Tottenham were beaten more often in 2025 than any other Premier League side (16 losses), a worrying stat for their defence.
Team news and selection notes
– PSG have no fresh injury concerns following a truncated pre-season due to the Club World Cup. Key starters — Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Fabián Ruiz, Vitinha, João Neves and Dembélé — are expected to start. Gianluigi Donnarumma has reportedly been left out of the squad amid contract uncertainty; new signing Lucas Chevalier is expected to start in goal. Luis Enrique must choose among several attacking options (Bradley Barcola, Désiré Doué, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia).
– Spurs’ likely XI includes Guglielmo Vicario in goal, a back four with Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven, a midfield anchored by João Palhinha and Rodrigo Bentancur, and an attack featuring Mohammed Kudus, Brennan Johnson and Richarlison (predicted lineups below).
Predicted lineups
Paris Saint-Germain: Lucas Chevalier; Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Willian Pacho, Nuno Mendes; João Neves, Vitinha, Fabián Ruiz; Désiré Doué, Ousmane Dembélé, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
Tottenham Hotspur: Guglielmo Vicario; Pedro Porro, Cristian Romero, Micky Van de Ven, Djed Spence; João Palhinha, Rodrigo Bentancur, Pape Sarr; Mohammed Kudus, Brennan Johnson, Richarlison.
Tactical keys and what to watch
– Momentum and midfield control: PSG are likely to dominate possession and look to create overloads through midfield with João Neves, Vitinha and Fabián Ruiz. Spurs will need Palhinha’s shielding and Kudus’s mobility to disrupt PSG’s rhythm.
– Dembélé and the wide threat: Dembélé’s form makes him a primary danger; Spurs full-backs will be tested defensively and in transition. How Tottenham handle PSG’s individual attacking quality will be decisive.
– Set-pieces and defensive solidity: With Spurs missing several starters, they may be more vulnerable at set-pieces and in defensive transitions. Conversely, Spurs’ physical midfielders can make life difficult for PSG if they win second balls and counter quickly.
– Goalkeeper situation: Donnarumma’s absence and Chevalier’s start add an extra variable; confidence and early saves could swing momentum.
Opta Power Rankings and the odds
– Opta’s Power Rankings (a global ability score for 10,000+ teams on a 0–100 scale) further underline PSG’s strength relative to Tottenham. The simulation percentages show a clear tilt to PSG but also leave room for an upset — nearly 1 in 5 simulations still produced a Spurs win or a drawn game leading to extra time.
Summary
PSG enter Udine as strong favourites on form, history and statistical simulations, but Tottenham’s new managerial chapter and Europa League momentum mean the match is not a foregone conclusion. Injuries and squad depth tilt the balance toward PSG, while Spurs must exploit quick transitions and set-piece moments to have a realistic chance.
Additional comments and a positive angle
– For PSG: a Super Cup win would be a milestone for French football, making France the 13th country to have a Super Cup-winning club and the first new nation to add a winner since Germany in 2013. Success would also underline PSG’s rise to genuine European supremacy after a record Champions League final.
– For Tottenham: Thomas Frank’s debut on a big stage is a chance to galvanise the squad and make a statement early in his tenure. A positive performance — even an upset — could provide huge momentum and belief for the season ahead. New signings like Kudus and Palhinha have the opportunity to quickly win over fans by stepping up in a high-profile game.
Brief summary for readers short on time
PSG are heavy favourites to beat Tottenham in Wednesday’s UEFA Super Cup in Udine according to Opta simulations, buoyed by dominant recent form, Champions League pedigree and fewer injury concerns. Tottenham, meanwhile, arrive as Europa League winners but with several key absences; the match also marks Thomas Frank’s first competitive game in charge. The game could still go to extra time or penalties, but history and current form point toward PSG.
Suggested additions for publication
– Include a short graphic or sidebar with the Opta simulation percentages and the predicted lineups to give readers a quick visual reference.
– Add a brief quotes section post-team announcements (if available) from Luis Enrique and Thomas Frank to give readers manager perspectives.
– If you run a matchday live blog, highlight kickoff time, TV/streaming details and social handles for real-time updates.