A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant trend in the prescription of GLP-1 medications, highlighting an increase in the number of prescriptions for individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those diagnosed with diabetes are declining.
The authors of the study express concern that this shift could lead to shortages of these essential treatments. GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially approved for managing type 2 diabetes, these medications, including Wegovy—approved for weight loss in 2021—have seen a surge in demand.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their analysis indicated a drop in the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Concurrently, the proportion of new users without a diabetes diagnosis rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that this trend suggests a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of GLP-1 medications for obesity treatment, signaling a major public health shift. However, she stressed the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients continue to have access to these vital treatments.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software provider TriNetX, although the dataset may not represent the entire national population.
GLP-1 medications have gained popularity for their weight loss effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. As sales of these drugs soar, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have emerged as leading pharmaceutical companies globally. Yet, this high demand has made it challenging for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. In response, both companies have committed substantial investments to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. by 2035, representing around 9% of the population.